The usual read is that a high share of listings with price cuts signals a weakening market. This month's data complicates that. Peoria is up 6.4% year over year with 28.2% of listings cut, a higher share than Asheville (26.9%), which is down 3.3%. Cape Coral, down 3.5%, shows cuts on just 20.5% of listings, roughly the same as Norwich (20.6%), which is up 7.0%.
What separates the gainers from the decliners looks more like price level and recent supply than seller behavior. The top gainers, including Rockford ($222,178), Binghamton ($203,310) and Syracuse ($268,949), are inexpensive Rust Belt and Northeast metros where buyers can still make the payment math work. The decliners, including Austin, Cape Coral and Las Vegas, are Sun Belt markets that ran up hard and added inventory. Price cuts appear to be a near-universal feature of today's market. Of the metros listed, Syracuse's 20.3% is the lowest share and Portland, Oregon's 31.8% is the highest.
Next month, watch whether Austin and Las Vegas, both above 30% cuts, see their declines deepen. Also watch whether Peoria's elevated cut share starts to slow its gains.
Tomorrow we'll look at whether affordable Midwest metros can sustain this pace into winter.