The week in picks

The prediction markets are talking about 2028, and they're talking loudly. Three of the top five volume leaders on Polymarket are Democratic presidential scenarios: DeSantis at nearly $10 million wagered, Whitmer at $9.8 million, and Ro Khanna at $9.7 million. The consistency across these prices, all hovering around 1 cent, suggests something interesting: traders aren't confident about any single outcome. They're hedging.

Compare this to the Peruvian presidential election, which captures the second-largest volume at $9.9 million despite being a single-country race. That concentration of capital on one market suggests genuine uncertainty about a specific event. The 2028 Democratic field, by contrast, looks like fragmentation. Small positions across multiple candidates indicate a market trying to price an unknowable primary process.

What's revealing is what's not there. Traditional election markets typically consolidate around frontrunners as a race approaches. Instead, we see dispersal across mid-tier candidates. Either the primary will be genuinely wide open, or traders are still operating on outdated assumptions about party dynamics. The market is hedging its bets when it should be consolidating around signal.

Watch whether DeSantis volume consolidates or if Kalshi's domestic political markets start competing for that capital next week.

The housing market is experiencing a quiet but significant reallocation of value. California's highest-priced metros, which have long anchored US real estate, are showing modest declines. San Jose remains the nation's most expensive market at $1.6M, yet prices fell 1.6% year-over-year despite near-15% of listings being cut. San Francisco, similarly troubled at $1.14M with a 1.9% annual drop, suggests that even coastal prestige cannot sustain momentum when inventory sits on the market.

Meanwhile, Rust Belt metros are breaking character. Rockford, Illinois posted an 8.8% annual gain on a base of just $214k, while Peoria jumped 8.5%. These aren't margin trades on existing wealth. They represent genuine migration of households seeking affordability paired with improving regional economics.

The divergence matters because it signals where money is actually moving. High price cuts in Phoenix (32.9%) and Tampa (30.2%) indicate forced sellers in formerly hot markets, not equilibrium. Buyer power is concentrating in markets with lower entry costs and lower leverage. Watch next month whether these Midwest gains hold or represent temporary seasonal volatility.

The question: are 2026's gains in affordable metros sustainable, or are we seeing noise around structural California exodus?

There's a reason Portuguese cooks have grilled sardines at their seaside tables for centuries, and it has nothing to do with nostalgia. A whole sardine on hot coals is a perfect teaching tool, a small fish that shows you exactly what heat does. The skin crisps and chars while the flesh stays tender, the bones soften enough to eat, and three minutes of attention yields something most of us can't replicate with finesse any other way.

The recipe page keeps things honest, which is what sardines demand. Paprika here isn't decoration, it's the backbone, adding a subtle sweetness and depth that mirrors what smoke does to the fish. Lemon and garlic follow, not leading. This is how you taste fish.

April is when sardines come into their richest season, when they've fed all winter and their oil content peaks. It's the month to stop overthinking.

Serve with good bread and a crisp white wine, or skip the pan altogether and cook these over your backyard fire.

Most homeowners wait until June when the heat arrives, then call their HVAC contractor only to find a six-week backlog. Spring is when you want that appointment. A pre-summer tune-up in April costs the same but gets you on the calendar before technicians are booked solid through August.

During a spring tune-up, your contractor cleans the condenser coils, checks refrigerant levels, and tests the system's efficiency after sitting idle all winter. This catches small issues before they become failures on a 95-degree day in July. Ask your HVAC contractor specifically about cleaning the outdoor unit and replacing the filter; many homeowners skip this thinking it's wasteful, but a clogged filter forces your system to work 15 to 25 percent harder.

When you call, confirm the appointment is an actual inspection and tune-up, not just a sales visit. Avoid companies offering "free estimates" for tune-ups; you should pay $100 to $200 for a legitimate service call.

Next week: why roofers should inspect your home after spring storms, not just ice dams.

The prediction markets tracking the 2028 Democratic presidential race are telling us something worth noticing: nobody knows. Both Ro Khanna and Jon Ossoff are trading at roughly the same price, within a percentage point of each other, despite vastly different national profiles. Khanna has higher name recognition among progressive activists; Ossoff won a statewide race in Georgia. Yet the market treats them as interchangeable long shots.

This uncertainty extends beyond these two names. The top five most-traded markets include three separate Democratic primary scenarios, each pulling substantial volume. That's not the pattern you'd see if a consensus frontrunner had emerged two years before voting begins. Instead, traders are hedging against multiple outcomes because the field genuinely looks wide open.

The Cleveland Cavaliers NBA Finals contract is the only non-political market in the top five by volume, which underscores a broader shift. Prediction markets are consolidating around near-term political outcomes where betting markets can actually move information. The 2028 presidential race represents genuine uncertainty that money still wants to price.

What matters: whether this fragmented Democratic betting landscape persists through summer, or whether a candidate emerges who can command the kind of price concentration we typically see in nomination races.

Watch whether any single Democratic candidate reaches 15 cents in the next 30 days.

The April data reveals a market bifurcating along geographic and price-point lines. California's premium metros, led by San Jose at $1.636 million, are experiencing modest declines despite double-digit price-cut rates. San Francisco's -1.9% YoY drop mirrors this pattern: high absolute values with persistent seller concessions. Meanwhile, Midwest markets like Rockford and Peoria are posting 8%+ gains on substantially lower bases, suggesting demand remains resilient where affordability exists.

The real narrative emerges in Florida's overheated markets. Cape Coral (-8.8% YoY), North Port (-7.2%), and Naples (-5.8%) are correcting sharply while simultaneously offering price cuts exceeding 28%. This combination signals forced selling rather than strategic positioning. Austin's -5.9% decline places it alongside Florida as a cautionary tale for markets that saw explosive appreciation in 2021-2022.

Most telling: Phoenix and Tucson are leading price-cut activity (32.9% and 29% respectively) without the steep YoY declines of East Coast corrections. These Sun Belt markets appear to be normalizing through mechanism rather than collapse.

The emerging question for May: whether Midwest strength can sustain through the spring selling season, or if it too signals merely different timing in a broader deceleration.

Watch whether premium California metros stabilize or continue their slow bleed downward.

There's a particular generosity in Tunisian pastry that deserves your attention in April. The Cashew Ghoriba Biscuits on our recipe page use a technique that feels almost counterintuitive: the dough comes together without any fat beyond egg yolk. This means the cashews and almonds aren't just flavoring, they're structural. They're holding the whole delicate thing up.

Orange blossom water is the real revelation here. It's not subtle, but it's never harsh, the way it cuts through sweetness and adds a floral complexity that makes you reconsider what a biscuit can be. This is pastry that tastes like late afternoon light.

April is when you want to bake something that doesn't require the dense comfort of winter spices. These biscuits arrive at the right moment, light enough to pair with tea, substantial enough to feel like a real achievement.

Pair with black coffee or a sharp bergamot tea, and make double what you think you'll need.

Most homeowners wait until they spot a leak to inspect their roof, but winter damage is already hiding in your valleys and flashings. April is the ideal window; you can still spot ice-dam damage and loose shingles before rain season intensifies, and roofers have shorter wait times than summer.

Don't climb up yourself if you're uncomfortable with heights. Instead, grab binoculars and scan from the ground, looking for missing granules in gutters, curled shingle edges, and gaps where flashing meets chimneys or vents. Take photos. If you spot anything questionable, call a roofer now for a detailed inspection, not an emergency repair in June.

Ask your roofer specifically about flashing condition and whether any ice-dam damage weakened the underlayment. Avoid anyone who pressure-sells a full replacement after a quick look; get a second opinion if the estimate exceeds $5,000.

One loose flashing this month costs $200 to fix; the same problem in August costs $2,000 after interior damage.

The 2028 presidential race is dominating prediction markets, yet the data tells a counterintuitive story. DeSantis, Khanna, and Whitmer each command massive trading volumes while trading at 1 cent or less. This isn't confidence; it's fragmentation. Bettors are distributing capital across multiple candidates rather than consolidating around a frontrunner.

Compare this to the Minnesota Timberwolves Finals market, where $9.7 million has flowed into a single binary question about a specific playoff outcome. Political betting shows no such concentration. The top three presidential markets combined represent nearly $30 million in volume, yet each candidate remains a long shot by the odds themselves. It suggests the market hasn't found a clear narrative two years before the general election.

This pattern matters because prediction markets work best when they aggregate genuine information. High volume with low prices can indicate either genuine uncertainty or mere speculation and hedging. The Greenland acquisition market, sitting at 15 cents with comparable volume to the political races, raises a related question: are traders pricing real scenarios or trading what they simply find interesting?

The 2028 race remains genuinely open, and these markets reflect that reality honestly.

Watch whether consolidation accelerates once Democratic primary contests actually begin.

The clearest narrative in April's data is geographic divergence masking a deeper affordability reset. Florida's coastal markets, which led the pandemic boom, are now in sustained retreat. North Port and Tampa both show year-over-year declines between 4 and 7 percent, with nearly 30 percent of listings carrying price cuts. These aren't isolated dips; Cape Coral, Naples, and Palm Bay all appear in the top five for price-cut activity. The pattern suggests Florida's 2021-2022 bubble has finally deflated enough that buyer resistance is real.

Meanwhile, smaller Midwest metros like Rockford and Peoria are posting 8 to 8.5 percent annual gains despite moderate price-cut activity. This isn't a supply shortage story. It's demographic and economic: remote work sustainability is pulling cost-conscious buyers into cheaper labor markets with lower living expenses. California's coastal premium persists (San Jose near 1.6 million), but the velocity of gains has stalled there too.

The disconnect matters. Sellers in overheated 2022-era markets are finally accepting reality. Buyers are voting with their feet toward resilient regional economies. Watch next month whether Midwest metros sustain this momentum or whether rising rates dampen even affordable markets.

The question: Is this normalization or the start of broader softness?

There's a particular logic to reaching for churros as the weather shifts. April's unpredictable, oscillating between genuine warmth and sudden cold snaps, which means our kitchens and bodies haven't quite committed to summer eating. Churros, with their Spanish origins rooted in practical roadside cooking, ask nothing of pretense, just heat and chocolate.

What strikes about this recipe page is the use of muscovado sugar in the dough itself. Most churro recipes stick to granulated sugar for coating, but muscovado's molasses content creates a slight caramel note before you even touch the sauce. It's a small technical choice that deepens the whole experience, turning what could be simple fried dough into something with actual flavor architecture.

The salted caramel sauce pulls double duty here, bridging that awkward seasonal moment, warm enough to feel substantial but light enough that you won't regret eating it in sixty-degree weather.

Serve with strong coffee or a good chocolate milk, depending on what temperature your kitchen actually is today.

Most homeowners wait until June when their air conditioner fails. By then, HVAC contractors are booked solid and prices spike. April is the sweet spot: the busy summer season hasn't hit, and technicians have availability at normal rates. More importantly, a spring tune-up catches refrigerant leaks, dirty coils, and electrical issues before you really need cooling.

During a tune-up, ask your contractor to check refrigerant levels, clean the outdoor condenser unit, and inspect the thermostat calibration. If your system is over 10 years old, ask them to run a capacity test so you know whether replacement is approaching. Many homeowners skip this annual service entirely, then panic in July when the AC barely cools. A $150 tune-up now prevents a $300 emergency call and extends your unit's lifespan by years.

When booking, confirm they'll test the system under load, not just visually inspect it. Avoid companies that push a full replacement without explaining why.

Next week: why gutter cleaning should happen before May downpours, not after.

The prediction markets are sending a striking signal about Middle East escalation. With $9.8 billion in volume on "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?" sitting at 99 cents, traders are essentially betting the region won't see major new violence in the next three weeks. That's not cautious hedging; that's near-certainty pricing.

Compare this to the competing market on a permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 30, trading at just 14 cents with comparable volume. The gap reveals something specific: markets expect de-escalation or status quo maintenance over the immediate horizon, but they're deeply skeptical about formal diplomatic breakthroughs. Traders think the conflict pauses; they don't think it resolves.

This matters because 99-cent prices don't leave room for error. If even modest escalation occurs, that market reprices violently downward, generating enormous losses for the long positions that are now dominating. The concentration of capital here suggests either genuine confidence in back-channel negotiations, or a dangerous complacency about tail risks that seem remote until they aren't.

The 2028 presidential markets, meanwhile, remain fractured across multiple long-shot candidates at penny prices, suggesting less consensus about domestic politics than foreign crisis prevention.

Watch whether the Iran conflict market ever dips below 95 cents; that's when real money starts hedging.

The housing market is splitting into distinct regional patterns that defy simple narratives. While Rockford and Peoria in Illinois post year-over-year gains above 8 percent, concurrent price cuts of 15-22 percent in those same metros signal sellers testing inflated expectations against realistic buyer demand. Meanwhile, coastal markets tell a different story: San Jose and San Francisco are shedding value despite their elevated price bases, suggesting wealthy coastal metros may be normalizing after years of outsized appreciation.

The real story emerges in Florida's correction. Cape Coral, North Port, and Tampa show steep double-digit annual declines paired with price cuts exceeding 28-30 percent. These are not minor adjustments but substantial recalibrations, particularly for a state that symbolized pandemic-era migration gains. Against this, Midwest metros like Appleton are appreciating modestly while maintaining single-digit price cut rates, pointing to genuine demand rather than inventory panic.

The data indicates a market where high absolute prices (coastal California) and speculative enthusiasm (Florida) are facing demand reality checks. Lower-cost Midwest markets are capturing real migration flows. Watch whether price-cut percentages in Florida's major metros stabilize or accelerate through May.

Next month's data will clarify whether Midwest gains reflect permanent migration patterns or temporary repricing windows.

The recipe page for Aussie Burgers does something Australian food does better than most cuisines: it refuses to be polite about vegetables. That cooked beetroot isn't a garnish or a virtuous side hustle. It's structural. The earthiness cuts through the richness of minced steak with the same logic that makes a good steak sauce necessary, except here the sauce is the vegetable itself, and it's doing real work.

April is the month when beetroot stops being winter's holdover and becomes something we actually want to eat again. The sweetness tastes fresher, less locked in amber. Naan bread, that tender canvas, is the right choice here too, better than any bun because it can actually absorb the moisture from the beetroot and the soured cream without dissolving into sad paste.

This isn't fusion cooking trying to prove something. It's just what happens when you cook the food people actually want to eat where they actually live.

Serve with a sharp pickle or pickled onions if your beetroot leans sweeter than expected.

Most homeowners wait until June when their air conditioning fails. By then, HVAC contractors are booked solid, and emergency calls cost 40% more. April and early May are the sweet spot: temperatures are mild enough that a broken system isn't urgent, yet demand is low and prices are stable.

When you call an HVAC contractor this week, ask them to check refrigerant levels, clean the condenser coils, and test your thermostat. A spring tune-up catches worn capacitors and dirty filters before the heat arrives. This 30-minute service typically costs $100 to $150 and can prevent a $5,000 emergency replacement mid-summer.

Avoid contractors who pressure you to replace equipment during a routine visit. Get a second opinion if they recommend anything beyond filters and coil cleaning. Ask for a written report showing what was serviced and any issues they spotted for later.

Next week: why a spring roof inspection now saves you thousands come fall.

The 2028 presidential race has consumed prediction markets with remarkable intensity. Three of the top five volume markets by our tracking are explicitly about the Democratic or Republican nominations, with the DeSantis market alone exceeding $9.8 million in traded volume. This concentration reveals something important: traders believe the 2028 outcome remains genuinely uncertain, and they're willing to put serious capital behind that conviction.

What's striking is the pricing. Ron DeSantis sits at just 1 cent despite being favored in some conventional polls. This suggests either that prediction markets are pricing in significant tail risk to his candidacy, or that the market expects a crowded field where no single candidate commands overwhelming odds. The Ro Khanna market at identical odds further complicates the picture; the Massachusetts congressman wasn't on most political insiders' radar six months ago.

The contrast with sports betting is telling. The Celtics championship market trades at 12 cents, reflecting relatively clear conventional wisdom. But political markets at 1 cent suggest genuine epistemic humility, or perhaps a market struggling to price events where polling is sparse and coalitions remain fluid.

The real test comes when we compare these prices to actual primary results over the next 18 months.

Watch whether these 1-cent odds on second-tier candidates begin to move as primary season approaches.

The data reveals a bifurcated market: coastal California is shedding value despite stratospheric price levels, while post-industrial Midwest metros are posting genuine gains. San Jose remains the nation's priciest market at $1.64M, yet it's down 1.6% year-over-year with 14.9% of listings cut. San Francisco mirrors this pattern. These aren't marginal corrections. Meanwhile, Rockford, Illinois has climbed 8.8% to $213,900, and Peoria gained 8.5% despite higher price-cut rates, suggesting actual demand rather than liquidation.

The divergence isn't about inventory clearing. Florida's reset (Cape Coral down 8.8%, North Port down 7.2%) looks structural, with 28-30% price cuts indicating capitulation. Austin's 5.9% decline sits between coastal stagnation and Rust Belt appreciation. What separates Rockford from Cape Coral isn't just price levels: it's the nature of the buyer pool and whether migration is flowing in or draining out.

The Midwest's modest gains alongside elevated price-cut rates suggest buyers are showing up but negotiating harder. California's coastal markets remain in a holding pattern where sellers cut prices less aggressively despite negative momentum, implying reluctance to accept reality. Watch whether Midwest price cuts stabilize or spike next month. That'll signal whether these gains reflect genuine regional rotation or temporary arbitrage.

Florida's 30% cut rates are approaching distress territory.

Torrijas occupy a strange and wonderful space in Spanish food culture, somewhere between breakfast and dessert, between thrift and luxury. They emerge most prominently during Holy Week, when cooks transform day-old bread into something gilded and custardy, but there's no reason to wait for spring holidays. The recipe page offers a version spiked with sweet sherry, which does something specific: it adds depth without asserting itself as booze. The alcohol mellows during cooking, leaving behind a subtle nuttiness that makes the egg custard taste less like sweetened dairy and more like something built.

The technique here matters. You're not merely dipping bread in egg. You're creating a thin, cooked custard shell that fries until caramelized, then coats that exterior with icing sugar while the interior stays tender from the cream-enriched soak. It's controlled indulgence, which feels right for April, when we're ready for richness again but not yet for summer's lighter hand.

Serve alongside fresh orange segments, or substitute dry amontillado sherry if you prefer less residual sweetness.

Most homeowners wait until May or June to call HVAC contractors, then wonder why they can't get an appointment for weeks. April is the sweet spot: temperatures are mild enough that you don't need cooling yet, but contractors have availability before the summer surge. A spring tune-up catches refrigerant leaks, dirty coils, and worn compressors before they fail during a heat wave.

Ask your HVAC contractor to check airflow across the outdoor unit, clear any winter debris, and test your system on a mild day. They should measure refrigerant pressure and inspect electrical connections. This 1-2 hour service costs $150-300 and typically extends equipment life by years. It also gives you a written report you can reference if problems develop later.

When booking, ask directly if the contractor has openings in early-to-mid April. Avoid anyone unwilling to provide a written inspection summary; that's your proof of what was actually done.

Next week: why roofers should inspect your gutters before spring storms arrive.

The 2028 presidential race has consumed nearly $30 million in aggregate volume across just four candidates, yet the lowest price for any of them sits at a single penny. This isn't normal. When markets price candidates at 1 cent, they're not expressing genuine probability; they're hitting the platform's minimum bid threshold, a sign that price discovery has broken down entirely.

Consider the "Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" market, which has drawn nearly $10 million in volume. That kind of capital shouldn't be trading at the floor price unless something structural is wrong. Either traders believe these candidates have negligible chances, or the market structure itself prevents rational pricing. The volume suggests genuine uncertainty, not certainty of long-shot outcomes.

This matters because prediction markets are supposed to aggregate information efficiently. When they malfunction, they mislead. The Pistons winning the Finals at 2 cents has a more coherent narrative, at least; the political markets suggest either that the 2028 race remains genuinely unsettled five months into 2026, or that traders are using these platforms as something closer to betting parlors than forecasting tools.

Watch whether these penny markets break their floor pricing as we approach the 2026 midterms.

The clearest story in April's data is the divergence between price and market conditions in coastal California. San Jose and San Francisco, commanding $1.6 trillion and $1.1 trillion in median home values respectively, are both cutting prices at roughly 15 percent while posting year-over-year declines. This isn't a flash correction. It suggests sustained inventory pressure at the top of the market, where affordability constraints have simply run their course.

Meanwhile, Midwest metros like Rockford and Peoria are posting 8 percent gains with far lower price-cut activity. The story isn't that these markets are overheating. It's that they're absorbing demand at rational price levels. This regional split indicates the post-pandemic migration wave has stabilized, but it's created a structural problem: the coasts have overpriced themselves relative to local fundamentals.

Florida's sharp declines (Cape Coral down 8.8 percent, North Port down 7.2 percent) alongside record price cuts suggest that initial pandemic migration gains are reversing. Buyers are no longer bidding up secondary markets to escape coastal metros. Watch whether May data shows stabilization in these Florida metros or continued erosion. That will determine whether this is a soft landing or the start of a longer repricing cycle.

Next month: does Florida's bottom hold or break further?

April's aubergines arrive at that exact moment when they've grown past winter's dense, seed-heavy phase but haven't yet hardened into summer's thick-skinned specimens. This recipe page captures that window perfectly, using high heat to collapse the flesh into something creamy and yielding, the way Turkish cooks have done it for centuries.

The genius here is balsamic vinegar against charred eggplant, a pairing that shouldn't work across culinary traditions but absolutely does. That sweet-tart punch cuts through the vegetable's natural fat in a way that feels both unexpected and inevitable once you taste it.

Fresh shallots, appearing now in markets with their paper-thin skins still tender, add mild allium sweetness rather than aggression. The goat's cheese becomes almost a vehicle, a cool counterpoint to everything else on the plate.

Toast your flatbread just before serving, not minutes before, so the steam from the warm aubergine can slightly soften it again.

Most homeowners wait until June when their air conditioning fails. By then, HVAC contractors book solid for weeks, and emergency service calls cost 40 percent more. Spring is the actual window to get maintenance done at normal rates and avoid summer heat without working equipment.

Call an HVAC contractor this week to request a pre-season tune-up. They'll check refrigerant levels, clean coils, test the thermostat, and catch failing components before peak season. A $150 spring visit often prevents a $3,000 emergency repair in July. If you haven't replaced your filter since fall, do it yourself first; a clogged filter forces your system to work harder and skews the contractor's diagnostic.

When booking, ask what's included in their standard tune-up and whether they warranty parts. Avoid companies that pressure you into upgrades you don't need. A straightforward inspection takes 45 minutes.

If you're hearing unusual noises from your outdoor unit, that's worth a look before temperatures climb.

The NYC temperature contracts on Kalshi are telling us something worth examining. Markets are pricing tomorrow's high at 51-54 degrees with roughly equal conviction across three adjacent buckets, yet NOAA's latest model shows 81% confidence in a narrower range. The disconnect matters because it reveals where prediction markets may be underweighting authoritative data.

The "high temp in NYC 53-54°" contract sits at 17 cents despite NOAA modeling an 81% probability, implying a +31 percentage point edge for informed traders. That's not noise. Weather prediction, unlike politics or crypto movements, has actual ground truth that arrives within hours. Markets should be converging on NOAA estimates faster than they are, especially when volume is substantial ($11-12k per contract).

This pattern suggests retail traders may be anchoring to historical volatility rather than updating on current model confidence. When a government agency with decades of data tells you something is highly probable, the market's indifference to that signal is worth exploiting, at least until 5 p.m. tomorrow brings verification.

Watch whether these weather contracts reprice toward NOAA's confidence levels in the final hours before the official reading, or if they stubbornly remain mispriced through close.

Pilchard puttanesca sits at an interesting intersection, the kind of dish that reveals how ingredient hierarchies shift depending on where you're cooking. In Southern Italy, canned fish was never a compromise, never a backup plan. It was the reliable protein that made dinner possible on nights when the catch was small or the budget smaller. The recipe page pairs pilchards with the assertive tangle of olives, capers, and tomato that defines puttanesca, letting the fish's mineral sweetness answer back rather than disappear.

What matters here is the emulsion. The spaghetti water does the real work, thinned with olive oil until the sauce clings. This isn't about cream or butter softening anything down. It's about honoring what's already on the plate: the salt, the brine, the intensity of preserved things that have nowhere to hide.

April is when we start thinking about lighter dinners again. This one feels seasonal not because of what's growing, but because it tastes clean.

Try it with crisp white wine, or swap the pilchards for fresh anchovies if you're near the coast.

Most homeowners call HVAC contractors in July, when technicians are booked solid and prices spike. Spring is the overlooked window. Contractors have availability now, and a pre-season inspection catches refrigerant leaks, dirty coils, and worn capacitors before your system labors through summer heat.

When you schedule, ask the technician to measure your system's actual cooling capacity against your home's square footage and insulation. Many units are undersized or oversized, wasting energy. Have them clean the condenser coils (the outdoor unit), check all electrical connections, and confirm your thermostat reads accurately. A tune-up typically costs $100 to $200 and can add years to your unit's life while lowering your electric bill.

Avoid contractors who pressure you into replacements during a spring visit. If your system is 10+ years old and failing, that's different. But a well-maintained 7-year-old unit doesn't need replacement just because someone says so.

Next week we'll cover why gutter cleaning before May matters more than you think.